A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
